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economic outlook for California and Orange County has become more pessimistic over the last few weeks according to the latest UCLA Anderson Forecast for Orange County. The Forecast projects the U.S. and state economies will move in tandem over the next few years, with income and employment deteriorating further before the housing market hits bottom.

A record 79,511 homes were lost to foreclosure in California over the last three months, up 228% from last year. MDA DataQuick reported that more homes were taken back by lenders in the three months ended Sept. 30 than at any time since the company started tracking foreclosures in 1992.

Recent legislation in California helped push notice of default filings, which indicate the start of the foreclosure process, down 61.8 percent in September, according to a recent report released earlier this week. ForeclosureRadar, which published monthly foreclosure data, found that only 16,352 notices of default were filed in September, down from 42,790 in August, and a decrease of 36.4 percent from a year earlier.

Home prices in California will drop 6 percent next year after falling about 32 percent this year, as foreclosed houses jam the market and the credit crisis makes it difficult for prospective homebuyers to obtain mortgages. The median price for detached, single-family homes in the most populous U.S. state likely will drop to $358,000 next year from an estimated $381,000 this year, the California Association of Realtors (CAR) said in its newly released annual housing forecast. The number of homes sold likely will rise 13 percent to 445,000 next year, following a 12 percent increase this year. The group's forecast for next year is based on the assumption that the U.S. financial system and overall economy has a weak first half of 2009 and improves in the second half, according to CAR. A year ago CAR projected that prices would decline only 4 percent to a median $553,000 this year. That's about 45 percent above the group's revised forecast for this year. Last year's forecast was made before the availability of jumbo loans plummeted, cutting the number of higher-priced homes sold, according to the trade group.

The index of pending home resales rose 7.4 percent in August, the most since October 2001, after falling 2.7 percent in July, according to a new report from the National Association of Realtors. The increase is the fourth so far this year and up 8.8 percent from August 2007.